Chart Analysis
AUZ Daily Timeframe Chart as of 28 April 2026
Australian Mines (ASX: AUZ) Flemington Scandium Scoping Study Returns US$860M NPV at US$3,000/kg — But the Mine Design Case at US$1,500/kg Tells a Different Story
Two numbers define the Flemington Scoping Study — and the gap between them matters. At the market-aligned sensitivity price of US$3,000/kg Sc₂O₃, the SRK Consulting study delivers a post-tax NPV₈ of approximately US$860 million with a 74% IRR. At the mine design case price of US$1,500/kg — the assumption consistent with peer Australian scandium studies — the NPV₈ drops to approximately US$270 million with a 32% IRR. Both assume US$125 million in initial capital, a 28-year mine life producing 60tpa of 99.9% purity scandium oxide, and C1 cash costs of US$561/kg. The stock moved +40.5% to $0.026 on 28 April 2026. The scandium market remains immature and opaque, with limited transparent pricing data — and which price scenario the market ultimately endorses will determine the project's trajectory.
The Economics — Price Sensitivity Is the Entire Story
| Sc₂O₃ Price | Post-Tax NPV₈ | Post-Tax IRR |
|---|---|---|
| US$1,500/kg (mine design) | US$270 million | 32% |
| US$2,000/kg | US$467 million | 46% |
| US$3,000/kg (market-aligned) | US$860 million | 74% |
| US$4,000/kg | US$1,253 million | 99% |
| US$6,000/kg | US$2,040 million | 143% |
The breakeven price is US$815/kg. The company cited Chinese export controls on scandium (2025), the US Defense Logistics Agency's US$40 million procurement for 6.4 tonnes (implying ~US$6,250/kg in defence context), and peer pricing of ~US$3,700/kg from the Syerston Feasibility Study in support of the US$3,000/kg sensitivity. The study is a Class 5 scoping-level estimate with ±35% accuracy — insufficient to support Ore Reserve estimation or a development decision.
The Project — Shallow Pits, Conventional Processing, Critical Mineral Status
Flemington is a 100%-owned scandium project in central New South Wales, contiguous with the Syerston Scandium Project. Three shallow open pits (approximately 40m deep, free-dig mining, 1.9:1 strip ratio) feed a hydrometallurgical flowsheet (HPAL, solvent extraction, oxalate precipitation, calcination) achieving 90.8% scandium recovery from a 6.3Mt resource at 446ppm Sc. Nickel and cobalt are recovered as by-products (~4% of revenue). An additional ~410kt at 405ppm Sc is currently classified as waste but may be assessed for stockpiling in future studies.
Scandium is designated a Critical Mineral by the US, EU, Canada, Australia, and Japan. The US has had minimal domestic production since 1990 and is essentially 100% import-reliant (~400,000–500,000 tonnes annually). China accounts for approximately 59% of global production.
Risks & Considerations
The headline US$860 million NPV is a sensitivity, not a base case — and the project's viability is acutely sensitive to a commodity with no transparent spot market and limited pricing data. The mine design case at US$1,500/kg generates a significantly lower NPV of US$270 million, and the ±35% accuracy band on capital and operating costs could shift the economics materially in either direction at either price assumption.
Pre-production capital of approximately US$125 million is required for a micro-cap company with no disclosed cash position or revenue. Funding may be dilutive or involve a partial sale / JV that reduces AUZ's ownership. No offtake agreements exist — scandium is a niche market where customer engagement has not commenced. Limited project-specific metallurgical testwork has been flagged as a key risk by SRK, and water supply requires further hydrogeological investigation. Environmental baseline studies and permitting have not been completed.
Key Dates & Timeline
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| January 2025 | Flemington MRE — 6.3Mt @ 446ppm Sc |
| 28 April 2026 | SRK Scoping Study released; stock moved +40.5% |
| TBC | Additional metallurgical testwork |
| TBC | Environmental studies and hydrogeological investigations |
| TBC | Pre-Feasibility Study (recommended next phase) |
Price Data
- Previous Close: $0.018
- Close Price (28 April 2026): $0.026
- Change (28 April 2026): +40.5%
- 52-Week Range: $0.006 – $0.027
Notable Price Levels
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$0.027 — 52-week high and session high, with the stock closing one tick below at $0.026. At sub-3-cent levels, a single tick represents ~3.7%, placing the close-to-high spread within normal micro-cap noise. No overhead supply exists above this level within the past 12 months.
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$0.018 — undisturbed close and the bottom of the gap-up window. The stock had been consolidating at $0.017–$0.019 for several weeks. A retracement here would fully unwind the scoping study premium.
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$0.014 — the Q1 2026 "study underway, results pending" trading range. This was the market's valuation of a defined 6.3Mt scandium resource before any economic parameters were published. A return here would imply the market has reverted to pricing the resource without a scoping study framework.
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$0.006 — 52-week low, set before the Flemington MRE and before Chinese scandium export controls. A return here would reverse the entire re-rating arc.
Summary
The SRK Consulting Scoping Study for Australian Mines' Flemington Scandium Project outlines a 28-year mine life producing 60tpa of 99.9% purity scandium oxide from three shallow, free-dig open pits in central New South Wales. Economics range from a post-tax NPV₈ of US$270 million at the US$1,500/kg mine design price to US$860 million at the US$3,000/kg market-aligned sensitivity — with initial capital of US$125 million, C1 costs of US$561/kg, and a breakeven of US$815/kg. The stock moved +40.5% to $0.026 on 28 April 2026. The study is a ±35% accuracy scoping estimate and recommends advancement to PFS. The scandium market remains immature with limited transparent pricing — project economics are acutely sensitive to a commodity price that cannot be reliably benchmarked. No offtake agreements, metallurgical validation, or environmental permitting have been completed, and approximately US$125 million in pre-production capital must be secured.
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